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By S M
Hali
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“THE supreme art of war is to subdue
the enemy without fighting….
To win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill.
To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill.” —Sun Tzu—The Art of
War (500 BC)
India tried to take advantage of the unfortunate events of September 11th,2001
and tried its utmost to bracket Pakistan with the list of countries engaged in
State terrorism so that the wrath of the coalition partners to combat terrorism
could be unleashed on Pakistan. When this did not succeed, it played every
possible trick in the book to malign Pakistan. Ultimately, out of sheer
frustration, it staged the drama of an attack on its own Parliament building in
New Delhi and blamed Pakistan for it. Using the attack as a plea, it amassed its
troops along the Pakistan-India borders and threatened Pakistan of dire
consequences. It even launched its Naval Fleet and deployed its Air Force to
wartime locations and assumed an aggressive posture aimed at politico-military
coercion of Pakistan. Pakistan’s measured and effective military response in
mobilizing its own Armed Forces thwarted the nefarious Indian designs.
India was not willing to accept the folly of its jingoistic militarism and
brought the region to the brink of a nuclear confrontation at least twice in the
past year. The almost year-long India-Pakistan military stand-off since December
was the longest, potentially more ominous and materially more expensive than any
other adventurism in the past. The year long belligerence was bound to take its
toll in limitless ways. The morale of its troops was at its lowest ebb. There
were numerous cases of mutiny by Indian soldiers against their officers,
desertion was at its highest level and special psychiatrist centres had to be
established to restore the confidence level of the Indian Armed Forces. Air
crashes, land-mine disasters and other accidents seriously undermined its war
making capability.
Financially too India was in a terrible mess. Besides the costs incurred on the
massive mobilization, India suffered huge losses in revenue because of its
decision to ban the overflight of Pakistani aircraft through Indian airspace
since Pakistan retaliated in a similar ban on Indian commercial flights which
had to find alternate routes circumnavigating Pakistan. Bombay stock market
plummeted and hasn’t recovered since. The farmers displaced from their lands in
Punjab and Rajasthan, were deprived of their crops and yields for two seasons
and facing near starvation and famine/drought, exerted additional pressure on
the Indian Government to de-escalate the tension and permit the farmers to
return to their lands.
Having failed to achieve their aims, the Indians found a face saving exit
strategy in the elections in Indian Occupied Kashmir. The surprisingly
supportive statements of some countries provided the Indians the excuse to
de-mobilize. On 16th October 2002, in a joint session of the Cabinet Committee
for Security and the National Security Advisory Board, it was finally decided to
commence with the process of de-escalation. The estimates of the expenditure
incurred on the nearly year-long futile “Operation Parakaram” are a matter of
speculation by the Indian Media. However, the Indian Press has provided some
details, which after compilation; present a fair approximation of the costs
incurred and opportunities lost.
The above figures are not only staggering, but have also left an indelible
negative impact on the Indian economy. The salient features of which are:
—The total Indian defence budget for the current fiscal year is Indian Rs 650
billion, including Rs 214 billion capital outlay (acquisition/procurement) etc.
and Indian Rs 436 billion fixed defence revenue expenditure (pay and
allowances/pensions, maintenance etc). The estimated cost of mobilization ie
Indian Rs 63 billion has eroded 29% of the procurement head of the Indian
defence budget.
—Indian official estimates conclude a 1% down scaling in the GDP growth rate for
the Current Fiscal Year due to the military stand-off.
—During the entire year of military face-off, the Mumbai Stock Exchange Index (Sensex)
has remained stagnant. After the self-inflicted Kalu Chak incident, when Indians
raised the war frenzy, the Sensex plummeted by 267 points within a short span of
10 days and closed at 3175 points on May 22, 2002. Since then, it has not
recovered. This is a distinct indicator of loss of confidence of both foreign as
well as domestic investor in the Indian market.
—Foreign Direct Investment declined sharply due to the deteriorating security
situation in the region and equity worth US $ 78 million was sold in a span of
one and a half month (Apr-mid May 2002).
—To boost their weapons acquisition, Indians were contemplating to raise the
defence spending by 20-30% in the Fiscal Year 2003-4. however, due to the
prevailing uncertain investment environment and negative effects on the
direct/indirect investment, serious drought situation in some Indian States and
over all financial squeeze, it may not be possible to realize the total volume
of acquisitions planned for the next fiscal year.
—With the GDP growth rate having slowed down to around 5% from the initial
projection of around 6%, the GDP to defence spending ratio is likely to go up
from the current level of 2.5% to more than 3%, which is definitely going to
cast adversely on the social sector development in the next financial year.
These were some of the effects which could be quantified. The blow to Indian
Armed Forces’ self-confidence will take years to be restored. It is now for the
Indians themselves to decide whether the statement of their Prime Minister Mr
Atal Behari Vajpayee in an interview to the Indian Daily Dainik Jigran’s issue
of 15th June 2002, stating: “We have won the war against Pakistan, without
firing a single bullet!” but a slap on his own face. Hasn’t he learnt any
lessons from Sun Tzu or more relevantly, from that master of guile and deceit in
statecraft, Chanakya. The people of India should question the wisdom of its
leaders in wasting their precious material and manpower resources in military
demarche and senseless confrontation, instead of utilizing them to feed,
educate, provide better health care and jobs to their teeming millions, their
impoverished masses and hungry populace instead of using them as cannon fodder
trembling with fear at the prospects of a nuclear holocaust.
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