“THE supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting….

To win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill.

To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill.” —Sun Tzu—The Art of War (500 BC)

India tried to take advantage of the unfortunate events of September 11th,2001 and tried its utmost to bracket Pakistan with the list of countries engaged in State terrorism so that the wrath of the coalition partners to combat terrorism could be unleashed on Pakistan. When this did not succeed, it played every possible trick in the book to malign Pakistan. Ultimately, out of sheer frustration, it staged the drama of an attack on its own Parliament building in New Delhi and blamed Pakistan for it. Using the attack as a plea, it amassed its troops along the Pakistan-India borders and threatened Pakistan of dire consequences. It even launched its Naval Fleet and deployed its Air Force to wartime locations and assumed an aggressive posture aimed at politico-military coercion of Pakistan. Pakistan’s measured and effective military response in mobilizing its own Armed Forces thwarted the nefarious Indian designs.

India was not willing to accept the folly of its jingoistic militarism and brought the region to the brink of a nuclear confrontation at least twice in the past year. The almost year-long India-Pakistan military stand-off since December was the longest, potentially more ominous and materially more expensive than any other adventurism in the past. The year long belligerence was bound to take its toll in limitless ways. The morale of its troops was at its lowest ebb. There were numerous cases of mutiny by Indian soldiers against their officers, desertion was at its highest level and special psychiatrist centres had to be established to restore the confidence level of the Indian Armed Forces. Air crashes, land-mine disasters and other accidents seriously undermined its war making capability.

Financially too India was in a terrible mess. Besides the costs incurred on the massive mobilization, India suffered huge losses in revenue because of its decision to ban the overflight of Pakistani aircraft through Indian airspace since Pakistan retaliated in a similar ban on Indian commercial flights which had to find alternate routes circumnavigating Pakistan. Bombay stock market plummeted and hasn’t recovered since. The farmers displaced from their lands in Punjab and Rajasthan, were deprived of their crops and yields for two seasons and facing near starvation and famine/drought, exerted additional pressure on the Indian Government to de-escalate the tension and permit the farmers to return to their lands.

Having failed to achieve their aims, the Indians found a face saving exit strategy in the elections in Indian Occupied Kashmir. The surprisingly supportive statements of some countries provided the Indians the excuse to de-mobilize. On 16th October 2002, in a joint session of the Cabinet Committee for Security and the National Security Advisory Board, it was finally decided to commence with the process of de-escalation. The estimates of the expenditure incurred on the nearly year-long futile “Operation Parakaram” are a matter of speculation by the Indian Media. However, the Indian Press has provided some details, which after compilation; present a fair approximation of the costs incurred and opportunities lost.

The above figures are not only staggering, but have also left an indelible negative impact on the Indian economy. The salient features of which are:

—The total Indian defence budget for the current fiscal year is Indian Rs 650 billion, including Rs 214 billion capital outlay (acquisition/procurement) etc. and Indian Rs 436 billion fixed defence revenue expenditure (pay and allowances/pensions, maintenance etc). The estimated cost of mobilization ie Indian Rs 63 billion has eroded 29% of the procurement head of the Indian defence budget.

—Indian official estimates conclude a 1% down scaling in the GDP growth rate for the Current Fiscal Year due to the military stand-off.

—During the entire year of military face-off, the Mumbai Stock Exchange Index (Sensex) has remained stagnant. After the self-inflicted Kalu Chak incident, when Indians raised the war frenzy, the Sensex plummeted by 267 points within a short span of 10 days and closed at 3175 points on May 22, 2002. Since then, it has not recovered. This is a distinct indicator of loss of confidence of both foreign as well as domestic investor in the Indian market.

—Foreign Direct Investment declined sharply due to the deteriorating security situation in the region and equity worth US $ 78 million was sold in a span of one and a half month (Apr-mid May 2002).

—To boost their weapons acquisition, Indians were contemplating to raise the defence spending by 20-30% in the Fiscal Year 2003-4. however, due to the prevailing uncertain investment environment and negative effects on the direct/indirect investment, serious drought situation in some Indian States and over all financial squeeze, it may not be possible to realize the total volume of acquisitions planned for the next fiscal year.

—With the GDP growth rate having slowed down to around 5% from the initial projection of around 6%, the GDP to defence spending ratio is likely to go up from the current level of 2.5% to more than 3%, which is definitely going to cast adversely on the social sector development in the next financial year.

These were some of the effects which could be quantified. The blow to Indian Armed Forces’ self-confidence will take years to be restored. It is now for the Indians themselves to decide whether the statement of their Prime Minister Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee in an interview to the Indian Daily Dainik Jigran’s issue of 15th June 2002, stating: “We have won the war against Pakistan, without firing a single bullet!” but a slap on his own face. Hasn’t he learnt any lessons from Sun Tzu or more relevantly, from that master of guile and deceit in statecraft, Chanakya. The people of India should question the wisdom of its leaders in wasting their precious material and manpower resources in military demarche and senseless confrontation, instead of utilizing them to feed, educate, provide better health care and jobs to their teeming millions, their impoverished masses and hungry populace instead of using them as cannon fodder trembling with fear at the prospects of a nuclear holocaust.